INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET EVENT AND INFLUENCE...

Info Wire

2011-02-23T10:37:00.000-08:00

RBI to evaluate the current practice of Foreign Bank in India
Mumbai, Feb, 23: Reserve Bank of India has Released the roadmap for presence of foreign banks in India to increase the efficiency of the banking system in the country.. The RBI’s prime goal was to consolidate the the domestic banking system including the public sectors and private sector. The second objective was was the gradual enhancement of overseas banks in a synchronized manner to inculcate the global practices in Indian system. The Road map was divided into two stages, the first stage was between March 2005 – March 2009, and the second stage will be beginning after the evaluation of the first stage. At the time of evaluation global financial turmoil surfaced and disturbed the financial equilibriums of global economy and there were tremendous uncertainties surrounding the financial strength of banks across the world. At that time it was considered by RBI to continue with the existing system however things are improved a lot so the regulator is considering the change in the system.

MARKET SURGED RECORD 28% IN A MONTH...

2009-05-31T06:42:00.000-07:00

It was a great month for the Indian capital markets. The index rallied to lot of vital events that occurred in May and provided fuel to the positive sentiments. Realty, metal, capital goods and banking sectors witnessed enormous buying interest.

Indices had hit the 20% circuit on Monday, May 18, after the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) swept the Lok Sabha polls.This was the repeat of the history .The day's percentage rise was the biggest since a 20.8 percent jump on March 2, 1992 when Singh, who was then finance minister, unveiled reforms that opened the economy to foreigners .This was the pivotal event for the market where same person voted by Indian people to govern in for next five year freely and also saw the government unveiling the list of Cabinet Ministers.

The exile of left party from the decision making process was also celebrated by the market.

Globally, the OPEC kept crude oil output unchanged which resulted a shoot in prices above USD 66 a barrel. On the M&A front, Bharti Airtel renewed talks with South Africa's MTN. These were some of the major events of this week. Both the indices gained 5% each on week-on-week basis.

Index (%)	Weekly	Monthly
Reality	15.38	79.30
Metal	11.68	57.98
Smallcap	8.59	51.92
Capital Goods	7.32	50.74
Bankex	5.50	45.26
Midcap	6.33	43.91
Power	5.28	36.38
Auto	5.29	31.80
Sensex	5.31	28.26
Oil&Gas	6.17	28.12
Nifty	4.97	28.07
IT	5.92	12.55
Healthcare	1.74	11.99
FMCG	0.77	0.08

The May series ended on a high note with the biggest percentage gain ever in an F&O series. Both the Sensex and the Niifty surged 28% on the month-on-month basis

Good global cues also aided the positive momentum. Infrastructure (capital goods + power), oil & gas, metal, realty, auto, telecom and technology stocks saw huge buying interest. Better than estimated GDB numbers cheered the markets; Growth number for the full year, FY2008-09, came in at 6.7% versus a projection of 7.1%. The GDP growth for the last financial year, FY08, stood at 9%. The numbers for the fourth quarter of FY09 also came in at 5.8% versus 5.8% last quarter and 8.8% a year ago.

The the statement of oil minister about deregulation bill for oil price would be taken up by the Cabinet soon and added that tax breaks for gas production would also be taken up shortly. The Ministry said it planned to re-launch New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) VIII soon. The Ministry further stated that it would consider the decontrol of APM gas after the oil product deregulation.

Speaking on the impact, VK Sharma of Anagram Sharma said. “I think it is worthwhile and it will give oil marketing companies as well as ONGC and GAIL some levy from having to bear the burden. The government too will not have to do that much. So I think it augers well for not only marketing companies but the others also for ONGC and GAIL.”

The 30-share BSE sensitive index surpassed the 14,700 during the day and touched an intraday high of 14,727.28, up 431.27 points. But the some profit booking at higher levels wiped out some gains. It closed 329.24 points or 2.3% higher at 14,625.25. The 50-share NSE Nifty surged 150.95 points to touch a high of 4488.05, before closing at 4448.95, up 2.58% or 111.85 points at the last trading day of the month. In the last trading week The Sensex surged 5.3% and the Nifty gained 4.97%. Among the broader indices, the Nifty Junior was up 4.5%, CNX Midcap Index up 5% and BSE Small Cap Index went up 8.4%.

Socialistic syrup! Will it cure capitalism?

2009-05-29T22:23:00.001-07:00

The playgrounds of capitalism are under deep recessionary pressure and they blamed by the world to spread their pain across the globe. America the place where the capitalism nourished and flourished is now became the epicenter of the entire crisis that spreads their wings in all sector of world economy. The processes of rapid leveraging that picked its pace in the beginning of the current decade, which pushed the US financial system into overleveraged territory. The US subprime model ,that is the centre of the turbulence. Earlier the US subprime model got their appreciation worldwide and now it mothered all the financial Tsunami globally. It led to overheating of Mortgage backed bond market which was backed by rocketing real state value due to high demand of asset and easy availability of the loans, send the US financial system in risky zone. The high profile ex-federal governor Allen Greenspan who is known as architect of modern capitalistic structure of US .This model is based on risk sharing system and this structure were well appreciated by majority of the economist and remarked by them, that it is a full proof system. When deleveraging started the first crashed reality price, followed by mortgage backed Bond , then Wall Street and then pain extended to the Main Street where all the economy activity occurs and entire structure were started crumbling. Allan Greenspan commented on the problem by saying that I haven’t anticipated that the system working properly from many decade can collapse like this.With all the doom

and gloom surrounding the banking industry from the toxic assets to the nasty recession .When the overleveraged financial institutions started writing off their toxic assets the balance sheets of the companies started deteriorating quarter after quarter since July 2008 when it surfaced first. First big prey was Bear Stern, who requested the Federal Reserve for fund to manage their day to day business. This was a shocking news who shook the financial world, Bear stern was the respected name who lost in the credit crunch, once their share was at 167$ was smelling 1$ per share. The company was on sale but nobody ready to buy their toxic asset ,finally the intervention of fed JP Morgan bought the company on rare valuation of 2$ per share who revised the price latter on. In the mean time many smaller banks like Meridian Bank , Amribank , silver state Bank, Integrity Bank, The Columbian Bank and Trust, First Priority Bank ,First Heritage Bank and Bank of Aveda ,Douglas National bank, Hume Bank, Main street Bank, ANB Financial, Indymac Bank, Washington Mutual started falling like pack of card . Since the recession began in January 2008, the FDIC has closed just 39 banks—25 in 2008 and 14 thus far in 2009.

And now it was the turns of big financial mammoth to fall that were facing the effect of turmoil. Initially they thought that they can observe the shock but this was their wrong conception they found themselves enveloped by the crisis that was nowhere near to an end. Most of the investment banks lost their luster .JP Morgan, Morgan Stanly, Bank of America and Citi Bank were downgraded and the share price of citi pulled below1$. Wall Street's financial model has collapsed, and the business model of investment banks has threatened they converted themselves into bank.

Credit crunch in financial system and deteriorating sales pressurized the Detroit and big names of Ford, GM, Chrisler, Toyota, and Nisan became the falling storey and finally Christler the parents of renowned jeep became case of chapter 11 protections after the Lehman brother who earlier lost in the financial storm.

Same show was on screen in the Euro zone first victim was BNP Paribas largest bank of France disclosed that they have subprime exposure and this disclosure shocked the Euro zone and then many banks including RBS of uk.

What is the socialistic syrup?

Falling financials soaring unemployment above 8% credit fridge and problem in real economy due free market policy forced the government to offer support of dialysis to the economy. Socialistic syrup is all about the government support to the financial institutions and other companies to save them from fall, the support was given by the Washington and other members of euro zone in the form of massive bailouts and a special TARP (Trouble Asset Relief Program) of US government .The taxpayers money has used by the governments to support the main culprits of the crisis. The government has taken common share in the company and so it looks like the partial nationalization of the mammoth like AIG, Citi, JP Morgan, and many more. TARP was designed to spur lending, but banks now consider it a burden because it imposes too many restrictions, including on pay, and suggests that recipients are weak. Bank of America took $45 billion from TARP, U.S. Bancorp $6.6 billion, BB&T $3.1 billion and Bank of New York Mellon $3 billion. Similar case happens in Europe where British government has done with RBS and other troubled institutions. The nations who are great believer in the free markets economy are using the socialistic tools to support the economy.

Dose number one: Fed landed up to $85 billion to AIG, and the

U.S. government will effectively get a 79.9% equity stake in the insurer in the form of warrants called equity participation notes.

Dose number two: Aggressive policy rate cut near to zero to .25 by American fed reserve.

Dose number three: Massive bailout package of more than 850billion$ was fabricated by hennery Paulson previous treasury secretary and passed by the Capitol Hill in second attempt despite of people protest on main street .The taxpayer money were parked to toxic assets.

Dose Number Four: Tax incentive for the company and even the home buyers by the US government.

Dose number five: TARP plan of Timothy Gethner the new treasury secretary to help the banks followed by the tax breaks for the home buyers and industries from Obama administration.

Dose Number six: The new buzzword is PPP i.e. public private partnership a typical term close to socialistic world to save the collapsing system.

OUTCOMES:

The effects of the socialistic doses was quite helpful to arrested the fall .the first indicator came from the credit market LIBOR rate who went at record high has started coming down significantly this was the first indicator of thawing of credit system and at least some credit flows were started in the system earlier which was dried up . Dowjones is significantly rallied up to 8600 close to 200DMA.Finencial share performed well they rallied 200% to even more city was quoting .90$ is now more than3$more than 300% rise from low, almost similar move shown by the Bank of America,JP Morgan and other, the move of US equity markets are followed by the global market .After aggressive write-down of losses the balance sheet has shown some green shoots, but shoots are not the solution we need a proper tree to bring the economy out of wood and it will take long time to convert into the tree.

Initially it looks that recovery is there and Capitalistic world escaped from

demise and its credit should be given to the socialistic syrup but how long it

will help the economy to recover and what happened when this oxygen will be removed only time will tell .Still the employment rate is getting higher and higher and analyst predict 10% rate of unemployment very soon, Stress test results suggest that 10 banks from the 19 whose stress test conducted needed more capital in spite of the previous support from the government. Many experts holding the opinion, that it is the short term solution of the long term problems if it won’t work then what next? A sustainable recovery will occur only when the corporate system will be cleaned of losses and capitalism risks collapsing if this does not happen, Marc Faber, the author of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

Indian market is very soon ...

2008-10-31T11:05:00.000-07:00

indian market is in the process of bottoming out...
once it will test the october low then one can invest aggresively .
one should build their portfolio who is mostly inclined to large caps index stocks
RELIANCE WIL MOVE IN THE RANGE OF 1032 TO 1440
RELIANCE CAPITAL 603 TO 708
FOR SOME TIME PLAY FOR RANGE